NSE earnings CAGR could grow 15%, says Emkay's Avinash Singh

Emkay Global's Avinash Singh projects over 15% long-term earnings CAGR growth for NSE, calling India's capital markets a multi-year growth story. He also weighs in on BSE's faster recent growth, driven by its push into index options trading. Avinash Singh, Deputy Head of Research - Institutional equities - Emkay Global, expects NSE's profits to grow at more than 15% CAGR over the medium term, a pace he calls a decadal growth story for India's capital markets — even as insurance stocks dominate headlines on the day (September 24) NSE made its stock market debut.

Singh said India's rising middle and affluent class, more companies going public, and a maturing economy will drive years of earnings growth for stock exchanges, despite near-term swings from regulation and market volatility. Emkay has initiated coverage on NSE, projecting nearly a 13% earnings growth annually between financial year FY27 and FY29, a figure Singh expects to climb further out. "A 15% plus kind of an earnings compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) would be very realistic in our view," he said.

NSE's debut on day one was marked with an extended 4-5% post-listing gain, but Singh said future performance will depend on earnings, not listing-day enthusiasm. "There is going to be short-term volatility," he said, pointing to regulatory changes, market swings, and new technology as factors that could cap earnings in the near term. Over the last five years, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic, trading volumes and earnings across India's capital markets have shown strong growth, Singh said, though a higher base and regulatory changes could bring some consolidation ahead.

The comparison with BSE tells a different story. Over the past five years, BSE's revenue has grown faster than NSE's, at 52% annually compared with NSE's 24.3%, and its profit growth has outpaced NSE's too, at 77% against 23.4%. Singh linked BSE's surge to its push into derivatives trading, particularly index options, where it caught up on market share.

"Last four years journey of BSE has been a lot impressive the way they kind of made a really strong entry in derivatives, particularly in the index option and all," he said. Singh said it's too early to say whether BSE will keep growing faster than NSE. Both exchanges serve as gateways to India's capital markets and wealth creation, giving each a case for continued earnings growth, he said.

How they perform against each other will depend on their current market position and how regulatory changes reshape competition in specific trading segments. For the full interview, watch the accompanying video Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here First Published: Sept 24, 2026 11:47 AM IST Home Market News NSE earnings CAGR could grow 15%, says Emkay's Avinash Singh

Source: cnbctv18.com